Economic loss of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake was in billions of dollars; about 2,500 people died and 300,000 were left homeless. Earth sciences are the foundation for the identification of seismic hazards in Taiwan. Engineering, social science, and economics are needed to understand the consequences of natural hazards for the population and infrastructure. Communicating risk to decision-makers is critical for any countries, and especial for a small country like Taiwan.
The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) is a team project established in 2012 under the support of NSC. TEM is also a public participant of Global Earthquake Model (GEM), which is an international collaborative effort that brings together state-of-the-art science, national, regional and international organizations and individuals aimed at the establishment of uniform and open standards for calculating and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. The effort of TEM is to engage earthquake science and technology communities to collaborate on building a platform for seismic hazard evaluation and risk management. For year 2013 - 2014, we intent to construct the Taiwan Probability on Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for detailed earthquake risk assessment. Components of the Taiwan PSHA include: (1) A Fault source database and model for both inland and offshore events and compilation of fault source parameters. (2) Create a seismic source historical database (1600 to present), in partnership with the Central Weather Bureau’s Seismic Network, to archive historical earthquakes recorded in literature (prior to 1900) and seismic waveforms of major earthquakes (1900 - 1960). (3) A Geodetic strain model to provide information on long-term or short-term slip rates of fault sources. (4) A Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) for crustal and subduction zone earthquakes and prediction of strong motion durations. (5) Shallow structure and site response through compilation of logging, seismic reflection, micro tremor and seismic tomography studies to create 2D and 3D mapping of shallow Vp and Vs structures to the depths of seismic basement (Vs ~3 km/sec) and/or engineering basement (Vs ~300 m/sec). (6) Earthquake Scenarios and shakeout maps through the development of computational seismology and high-resolution velocity structures.
Our future target is to integrate PSHA-based risk, socio-economic impact, and scenario-based risk to minimize resulting damage and impact for the Socio-economic impact modeling and assessment and an Association with an innovative risk-reduction effort. As the effort of TEM and GEM aims to contribute to increased risk awareness and decisions and plans to mitigate risk.